How STS and STC Helps with Election
SharedToday Score:
The SharedToday Score is a metric calculated solely from the posts of a candidate and their core supporter group. It combines several weighted KPIs—virality (shares), per-post engagement, per-post comments, and net positive engagement—into one unified score. Essentially, we sum up these weighted KPIs and divide by the total engagement to get a comparable measure of how positively and actively the core group is engaging.
SharedToday Composite Score:
The SharedToday Composite Score is a refined measure that blends 60% of the normalized SharedToday Score percent with 40% of the normalized net positive engagement percent. By adding this additional weighting, we create a relative measure that allows us to directly compare candidates against each other on a consistent scale.
Why This Approach?
This method is built exclusively on data from the candidates and their core supporters. That means we’re making an apples-to-apples comparison without external noise or biases. By focusing on the core group, we ensure a stable and consistent baseline for all candidates, making our comparisons fair and robust. This gives us a clear, nuanced view of each candidate’s popularity that stands strong alongside traditional methods like polls.
Can this SharedToday Composite Score be used to predict whether a candidate will win?
While the composite score is a strong measure of a candidate’s popularity within their core supporter group and their overall engagement levels, it’s important to remember that it’s one piece of the puzzle. Essentially, it gives you a solid indication of how strongly and positively their core base is engaged.
Now, can this be used to predict whether a candidate will win? It can definitely be a strong indicator, especially if a candidate’s core supporters are very active and their net sentiment is high. A highly engaged and positively inclined core group can be a good sign that the candidate has strong grassroots support and momentum.
However, it’s also wise to combine this score with other data points—like broader polling or demographic trends—to get a fuller picture. In other words, while the composite score is a valuable tool for understanding popularity and potential, it’s best used as part of a broader analysis. But yes, it can certainly give you a good sense of who’s got strong, enthusiastic backing, which can be a key ingredient in winning.
How much lead should a candidate have in Shared Today Composite Score compared to the others so that we can call him a clear winner? What margin makes it a swing.
In terms of how much of a lead in the composite score a candidate would need to be considered a clear front-runner, it really depends on the context and how close the race is. But generally speaking, if a candidate has a noticeable and consistent lead—let’s say around 10% or more in their composite score compared to the next candidate—that could be considered a pretty strong indicator that they’re ahead.
Of course, in a very tight race, even a smaller margin might be significant. And if the margin is less than, say, 5%, you’d probably call it a close race rather than a decisive lead.
So in summary, a lead of around 10% or more in the composite score would typically be a strong signal, while anything smaller would suggest it’s still quite competitive. It’s all about the context of the race!